4K TV only to see ‘marginal’ gains in next five years

Editor | 05-10-2012

As shown at this year’s IBC, 4K TVs are very much a reality, with the TV market’s big guns lining up their first products, but new research is suggesting that they will account for only a minimal share of the TV market over the next five years.

Indeed, according to an IHS iSuppli Television Market Tracker Report, despite some high-profile product introductions, consumer demand for televisions with the ultra-high-definition 4K resolution will remain negligible for the foreseeable future, with shipments never accounting for more than a single percentage of the global LCD TV market during the next five years. In absolute terms, the survey predicts that worldwide shipments of 4K LCD-TVs will rise to 2.1 million units in 2017, up from 4,000 in 2012.

Even though Sony, LG, and Toshiba are already offering 4K TVs, and Chinese brands Hisense and Konka have announced that they will launch sets considerably cheaper than the aforementioned companies’ before the end of 2012, IHS believes that neither consumers nor television brands will have the interest required to make the 4K LCD-TV market successful.

“If you have a television that is 60-inches or larger and are watching video that has a 3,840 by 2,160 resolution, then a 4K television makes sense,” argued Tom Morrod, director, TV systems and technology research for IHS. “However, a very limited amount of content is available at the 4K resolution. Meanwhile, because of high prices and other issues, the market for super-sized, 60-inch and larger sets is very small — at only about 1.5% of total television shipments in 2012.

"Furthermore, for most people, the 1,080 resolution is good enough. Because of these factors, combined with the massive price tags, the market for 4K sets during the next few years will be limited to very wealthy consumers or to commercial uses.”

The analyst also postulated that the television brands may be viewing 4K merely as a transitional product until the arrival of next-generation active-matrix OLED TVs which themselves have struggled to be mass produced in competitive volumes and pricing.